The Role of Trust as a Driver of Private-Provider Participation in Disease Surveillance: Cross-Sectional Survey From Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Recognition of the importance of valid, real-time knowledge of infectious disease risk has renewed scrutiny into private providers' intentions, motives, and obstacles to comply with an Integrated Disease Surveillance Response (IDSR) framework. Appreciation of how private providers' attitudes shape their tuberculosis (TB) notification behaviors can yield lessons for the surveillance of emerging pathogens, antibiotic stewardship, and other crucial public health functions. Reciprocal trust among actors and institutions is an understudied part of the "software" of surveillance. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the self-reported knowledge, motivation, barriers, and TB case notification behavior of private health care providers to public health authorities in Lagos, Nigeria. We measured the concordance between self-reported notification, TB cases found in facility records, and actual notifications received. METHODS: A representative, stratified sample of 278 private health care workers was surveyed on TB notification attitudes, behavior, and perceptions of public health authorities using validated scales. Record reviews were conducted to identify the TB treatment provided and facility case counts were abstracted from the records. Self-reports were triangulated against actual notification behavior for 2016. The complex health system framework was used to identify potential predictors of notification behavior. RESULTS: Noncompliance with the legal obligations to notify infectious diseases was not attributable to a lack of knowledge. Private providers who were uncomfortable notifying TB cases via the IDSR system scored lower on the perceived benevolence subscale of trust. Health care workers who affirmed "always" notifying via IDSR monthly reported higher median trust in the state's public disease control capacity. Although self-reported notification behavior was predicted by age, gender, and positive interaction with public health bodies, the self-report numbers did not tally with actual TB notifications. CONCLUSIONS: Providers perceived both risks and benefits to recording and reporting TB cases. To improve private providers' public health behaviors, policy makers need to transcend instrumental and transactional approaches to surveillance to include building trust in public health, simplifying the task, and enhancing the link to improved health. Renewed attention to the "software" of health systems (eg, norms, values, and relationships) is vital to address pandemic threats. Surveys with private providers may overestimate their actual participation in public health surveillance.

Iterative evaluation of mobile computer-assisted digital chest x-ray screening for TB improves efficiency, yield, and outcomes in Nigeria.

Wellness on Wheels (WoW) is a model of mobile systematic tuberculosis (TB) screening of high-risk populations combining digital chest radiography with computer-aided automated detection (CAD) and chronic cough screening to identify presumptive TB clients in communities, health facilities, and prisons in Nigeria. The model evolves to address technical, political, and sustainability challenges. Screening methods were iteratively refined to balance TB yield and feasibility across heterogeneous populations. Performance metrics were compared over time. Screening volumes, risk mix, number needed to screen (NNS), number needed to test (NNT), sample loss, TB treatment initiation and outcomes. Efforts to mitigate losses along the diagnostic cascade were tracked. Persons with high CAD4TB score (≥80), who tested negative on a single spot GeneXpert were followed-up to assess TB status at six months. An experimental calibration method achieved a viable CAD threshold for testing. High risk groups and key stakeholders were engaged. Operations evolved in real time to fix problems. Incremental improvements in mean client volumes (128 to 140/day), target group inclusion (92% to 93%), on-site testing (84% to 86%), TB treatment initiation (87% to 91%), and TB treatment success (71% to 85%) were recorded. Attention to those as highest risk boosted efficiency (the NNT declined from 8.2 ± SD8.2 to 7.6 ± SD7.7). Clinical diagnosis was added after follow-up among those with ≥ 80 CAD scores and initially spot -sputum negative found 11 additional TB cases (6.3%) after 121 person-years of follow-up. Iterative adaptation in response to performance metrics foster feasible, acceptable, and efficient TB case-finding in Nigeria. High CAD scores can identify subclinical TB and those at risk of progression to bacteriologically-confirmed TB disease in the near term.

Pretreatment attrition and treatment initiation delay among rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis patients in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Assessing associated factors of pretreatment attrition and treatment delays among rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) patients could serve as a valuable tool to control and prevent its community spread. We assessed the factors associated with pretreatment attrition and treatment initiation delays among RR-TB patients in Lagos, Nigeria. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving secondary program data of RR-TB patients diagnosed using the Xpert MTB/RIF assay and initiated on treatment between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2017 in Lagos. Factors associated with pretreatment attrition and treatment initiation delay were determined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 606 RR-TB patients diagnosed during the review period, 135 (22.3%) had pretreatment attrition. Previously treated TB patients had a 2.4-fold greater chance of having pretreatment attrition than new RR-TB patients (adjusted odds ratio 2.4 [95% confidence interval 1.2-5.0]). The median time to treatment initiation was 29 d (interquartile range [IQR] 18-49). It was longer for new RR-TB patients (49 d [IQR 36-59]) than previously treated TB patients (28 d [IQR 17-44]). A total of 47% had long treatment delays. Being newly diagnosed with RR-TB was associated with long treatment delays. CONCLUSIONS: The pretreatment attrition rate and proportion of RR-TB patients with treatment delays were high. Pragmatic approaches to address the high pretreatment attrition and treatment delays in Lagos, Nigeria, are urgently needed.

A qualitative analysis of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Lagos, Nigeria: Client and provider perspectives on the plan, the process and the progress.

Mass vaccination has proven useful in the control of COVID-19, though vaccine rollout has met major challenges. The learning curve of this process has been valuable. This qualitative study aimed to assess the plan, the process and the progress of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Lagos, Nigeria. This study was conducted at vaccination centers in eight of the 20 Local Government Areas in Lagos State from May to July 2021 among healthcare administrators, health workers and vaccine recipients. Data were collected by conducting three key informant interviews, 24 in-depth interviews and eight focus group discussions to explore the vaccination experiences of participants and the challenges facing the vaccination plan and process. The interviews and discussions were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analyzed using the thematic approach. The four-phased plan for the vaccine rollout was clear to all the key informants because the vaccination process was preceded by training. The process was strengthened by the electronic registration system, though riddled by the frequently unstable electronic and internet data capturing. This was mitigated by a stopgap manual registration and recording of client details. Challenges in the logistics of maintaining supplies of the disposable materials required for the vaccination process were overcome by the creativity of the health professionals. Vaccine hesitancy, fueled by misinformation, myths and misconceptions about the vaccine and its side effects, played a huge role in the community response. The reported vaccine side effects were mild; fever, headaches, pain at the injection site, excessive eating and sleepiness. Though the COVID-19 vaccination process appeared to have largely made progress, the future of vaccination in Nigeria is predicated upon a bottom-up approach to programmatic planning, health education and local vaccine production. Collaborations such as public-private partnerships have the potential of boosting vaccine provision for Nigeria's large population to ensure equitable access to vaccines.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.

Hybrid Approach to Estimation of Underreporting of Tuberculosis Case Notification in High-Burden Settings With Weak Surveillance Infrastructure: Design and Implementation of an Inventory Study.

BACKGROUND: The greatest risk of infectious disease undernotification occurs in settings with limited capacity to detect it reliably. World Health Organization guidance on the measurement of misreporting is paradoxical, requiring robust, independent systems to assess surveillance rigor. Methods are needed to estimate undernotification in settings with incomplete, flawed, or weak surveillance systems. This study attempted to design a tuberculosis (TB) inventory study that balanced rigor with feasibility for high-need settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to design a hybrid TB inventory study for contexts without World Health Organization preconditions. We estimated the proportion of TB cases that were not reported to the Ministry of Health in 2015. The study sought to describe TB surveillance coverage and quality at different levels of TB care provision. Finally, we aimed to identify structural-, facility-, and provider-level barriers to notification and reasons for underreporting, nonreporting, and overreporting. METHODS: Retrospective partial digitalization of paper-based surveillance and facility records preceded deterministic and probabilistic record linkage; a hybrid of health facilities and laboratory census with a stratified sampling of HFs with no capacity to notify leveraged a priori knowledge. Distinct extrapolation methods were applied to the sampled health facilities to estimate bacteriologically confirmed versus clinical TB. In-depth interviews and focus groups were used to identify causal factors responsible for undernotification and test the acceptability of remedies. RESULTS: The hybrid approach proved viable and instructive. High-specificity verification of paper-based records in the field was efficient and had minimal errors. Limiting extrapolation to clinical cases improved precision. Probabilistic record linkage is computationally intensive, and the choice of software influences estimates. Record absence, decay, and overestimation of the private sector TB treatment behavior threaten validity, meriting mitigation. Data management demands were underestimated. Treatment success was modest in all sectors (R=37.9%-72.0%) and did not align with treatment success reported by the state (6665/8770, 75.99%). One-fifth of TB providers (36/178, 20%) were doubtful that the low volume of patients with TB treated in their facility merited mastery of the extensive TB notification forms and procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Subnational inventory studies can be rigorous, relevant, and efficient in countries that need them even in the absence of World Health Organization preconditions, if precautions are taken. The use of triangulation techniques, with minimal recourse to sampling and extrapolation, and the privileging of practical information needs of local decision makers yield reasonable misreporting estimates and viable policy recommendations.

Outcomes of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities in southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Data on the comorbidities that result in negative outcomes for people with COVID-19 are currently scarce for African populations. This study identifies comorbidities that predict death among a large sample of COVID-19 patients from Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of medical records for 2184 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Lagos, southwest Nigeria. Extracted data included age, sex, severity of condition at presentation and self-reported comorbidities. The outcomes of interest were death or discharge from facility. RESULTS: Most of the cases were male (65.8%) and the median age was 43 years (IQR: 33-55). Four hundred and ninety-two patients (22.5%) had at least one comorbidity and the most common amongst them were hypertension (74.2%) and diabetes (30.3%). The mortality rate was 3.3% and a significantly higher proportion of patients with comorbidities died compared to those with none. The comorbidities that predicted death were hypertension (OR: 2.21, 95%CI: 1.22-4.01), diabetes (OR: 3.69, 95% CI: 1.99-6.85), renal disease (OR: 12.53, 95%CI: 1.97-79.56), cancer (OR: 14.12, 95% CI: 2.03-98.19) and HIV (OR: 1.77-84.15]. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities are prevalent and the associated risk of death is high among COVID-19 patients in Lagos, Nigeria. Public enlightenment, early identification and targeted care for COVID-19 cases with comorbidities are recommended as the pandemic evolves.

Predictors of COVID-19 Information Sources and Their Perceived Accuracy in Nigeria: Online Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Effective communication is critical for mitigating the public health risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This study assesses the source(s) of COVID-19 information among people in Nigeria, as well as the predictors and the perceived accuracy of information from these sources. METHODS: We conducted an online survey of consenting adults residing in Nigeria between April and May 2020 during the lockdown and first wave of COVID-19. The major sources of information about COVID-19 were distilled from 7 potential sources (family and friends, places of worship, health care providers, internet, workplace, traditional media, and public posters/banners). An open-ended question was asked to explore how respondents determined accuracy of information. Statistical analysis was conducted using STATA 15.0 software (StataCorp Texas) with significance placed at P<.05. Approval to conduct this study was obtained from the Lagos State University Teaching Hospital Health Research Ethics Committee. RESULTS: A total of 719 respondents completed the survey. Most respondents (n=642, 89.3%) obtained COVID-19-related information from the internet. The majority (n=617, 85.8%) considered their source(s) of information to be accurate, and 32.6% (n=234) depended on only 1 out of the 7 potential sources of COVID-19 information. Respondents earning a monthly income between NGN 70,000-120,000 had lower odds of obtaining COVID-19 information from the internet compared to respondents earning less than NGN 20,000 (odds ratio [OR] 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98). In addition, a significant proportion of respondents sought accurate information from recognized health organizations, such as the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and the World Health Organization. CONCLUSIONS: The internet was the most common source of COVID-19 information, and the population sampled had a relatively high level of perceived accuracy for the COVID-19 information received. Effective communication requires dissemination of information via credible communication channels, as identified from this study. This can be potentially beneficial for risk communication to control the pandemic.

Presenting Symptoms and Predictors of Poor Outcomes Among 2,184 Patients with COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Lagos state remains the epicentre of COVID-19 in Nigeria. We describe the symptoms and signs of the first 2,184 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at COVID-19 treatment centers in Lagos State. We also assessed the relationship between patients' presenting symptoms, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and COVID-19 deaths.. METHODS: Medical records of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were extracted and analyzed for their symptoms, symptom severity, presence of comorbidities and outcome. RESULTS: The ages of the patients ranged from 4 days to 98 years with a mean of 43.0(16.0) years. Of the patients who presented with symptoms, cough (19.3%) was the most common presenting symptom. This was followed by fever (13.7%) and difficulty in breathing, (10.9%). The most significant clinical predictor of death was the severity of symptoms and signs at presentation. Difficulty in breathing was the most significant symptom predictor of COVID-19 death (OR:19.26 95% CI 10.95-33.88). The case fatality rate was 4.3%. CONCLUSION: Primary care physicians and COVID-19 frontline workers should maintain a high index of suspicion and prioritize the care of patients presenting with these symptoms. Community members should be educated on such predictors and ensure that patients with these symptoms seek care early to reduce the risk of deaths associated with COVID-19.

Clinical characteristics, predictors of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 and duration of hospitalisation in a cohort of 632 Patients in Lagos State, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical spectrum of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is still evolving. This study describes the clinical characteristics and investigates factors that predict symptomatic presentation and duration of hospitalisation in a cohort of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients managed in Lagos, Nigeria. METHODOLOGY: This was a retrospective assessment of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in six dedicated facilities in Lagos, Nigeria, between April 1st and May 31st 2020. Participants were individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The outcome measures were presence of symptoms and duration of hospitalisation. Demographic and comorbidity data were also obtained. Statistical analysis was done using STATA 15.0 software, with P < 0.05 being considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 632 cases were analysed. The median age was 40 years (IQR: 30.5-49); male patients accounted for 60.1%. About 63% of patients were asymptomatic at presentation. Among the symptomatic, the most common symptoms were cough (47.4%) and fever (39.7%). The most common comorbidities were hypertension (16.8%) and diabetes (5.2%). The median duration of hospitalisation was 10 days (IQR: 8-14). Comorbidities increased the odds of presenting with symptoms 1.6-fold (P = 0.025) for one comorbidity and 3.2-fold (P = 0.005) for ≥2 comorbidities. Individuals aged ≥50 years were twice as likely to be hospitalised for more than 14 days compared to individuals aged <50 years (P = 0.016). CONCLUSION: Most individuals had no symptoms with comorbidities increasing the likelihood of symptoms. Older age was associated with longer duration of hospitalisation. Age and comorbidities should be used for COVID-19 triaging for efficient resource allocation.

Clinical presentation, case management and outcomes for the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Success in curtailing the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) depends largely on a sound understanding of the epidemiologic and clinical profile of cases in a population as well as the case management approach. This study documents the presenting characteristics, treatment modalities and outcomes of the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria. METHODS: This retrospective study used medical records of the first 32 patients admitted and discharged from the Mainland Hospital, Lagos State, southwest Nigeria between February 27 and April 6, 2020. The outcomes of interest were death, promptness of admission process and duration of hospitalization. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 38.1 years (SD: 15.5) and 66% were male. Three-quarters (75%) of the patients presented in moderately severe condition while 16% were asymptomatic. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (59%) and dry cough (44%). The mean time between a positive test result and admission was 1.63 days (SD: 1.31). Almost all (97%) the patients were treated with lopinavir-ritonavir with no recorded death. The median duration of hospital stay was 12 days (IQR: 9-13.5). CONCLUSION: In this preliminary analysis of the first COVID-19 cases in Nigeria, clinical presentation was mild to moderate with no mortality. Processes to improve promptness of admission and reduce hospital stay are required to enhance the response to COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Clinical profile of diabetes mellitus in tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective is to document the clinical profile of diabetes mellitus (DM) in tuberculosis (TB). TYPE OF STUDY: This was a descriptive observational study. METHODS: A total of 4000 persons aged above 12 years with a confirmed diagnosis of TB and on treatment were recruited. The study subjects were screened for DM and diagnoses were made on the basis of the WHO criteria. Clinical parameters were compared between persons with DM and those without DM. RESULTS: Mean age was higher in patients with TB and DM than in persons without DM, and this difference was statistically significant (40.9 vs 39.6 years, p=0.0002). DM/TB comorbidity was noted in 480 persons and these made up 12.3% of the study population. Some clinical features of patients with TB who had DM included a positive family history of DM, a history of hypertension, and central obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Given the substantial burden of DM and TB comorbidity, we recommend that patients with TB be screened routinely for DM. However, further research is needed to clarify the risk factors for the occurrence of DM in TB.